MovingPictures

A Week of Editing...

I shot video all last week at the University of Rhode Island, and spent this week doing all the editing. I edited 24 segments, put them on a master tape and them made Quicktime files of all of them. I them burned them on DVD's this morning and got them into the mail, WHEW!!!!!!!! I had time today to do some things around the house today and now I am getting ready for my shoots in Columbus and Chicago this weekend. I will get some time to rest next week, but have been getting more and more calls for shoots, this freelancing is becoming a full time job, ha....

Sirius - XM Merger Finally Complete...

Friday evening the FCC finally got off their asses and did their civic duty and voted 3-2, agreeing that Sirius-XM merger would not be a monopoly of choices for mobile entertainment in the in-car entertainment market after 17 months of screwing around. The Department of Justice (DOJ) approved the merger over three months ago, The National Association of Broadcasters tried to buy off Senators and Congressmen to influence the FCC, and to stop the merger. Frankly, if the terrestrial broadcasters had something worth listening to, they would not to have to worry about the merger. This merger of two satellite radio stations took twice as long as the Exxon-Mobile merger of two oil companies which affects each and every person in this country, and we now have $4.00 gas. Maybe the government should have paid a little more attention to this merger and not the Sirius-XM merger, which will NOT affect over 280 million people in the United States if you do not subscribe. I think this will be a great thing for subscribers, I travel alot and Sirius is the best thing ever invented! So go out today and get yourself a Sirius radio and enjoy...

Diana Camera Pictorial History - Now Available...

Today I completed the book I have been working on for quite sometime: Diana Camera Pictorial History. The book contains over 102 Diana Camera clones and 20 Diana photos from some of the most unique Diana shooters in the country, Jonathan Bailey, Chris Crawford and Seán Duggan. The book contains a history of the camera, and some back stories that give you incite into how some idea of how the cameras were named and who gave them away for free.I have collected these Diana cameras for many years and my collection was purchased by the Lomographic Society International in 2007. I continue to update my Diana website with newly found names of elusive clones. Please feel free to pass the word along to friends, if you want to purchase a copy, click HERE.

Hello Dolly - First U.S. Hurricane Making Landfall...

From my MESO storm chase partner Brian McNoldy...

Dolly has strengthened overnight, and is now just miles from the coast (at 16Z) and is a Category 2 hurricane... 85kts and 964mb. Though only 40 miles or so offshore, the eyewall (the engine that drives the rest of the machine) is still over very warm Gulf water. As such, the storm can still continue to strengthen while the entire western half of the storm is over land. The eye is presently located 40 miles ENE of Brownsville TX and is 23 miles across.

Rainfall totals could reach one foot. Storm surge is in the 4-6 foot ballpark.  It's still too early to know the full aftermath, as it's still in progress. Buoy 42020, offshore between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, is reporting 22' waves, and the worst is still coming.

It's moving very slowly (about 6 kts) and is now heading nearly parallel to the coast, which means Dolly could still have several hours over water. If you navigate to the link below, you'll find links to radar loops, surface observations, and satellite imagery.

Hardly worth discussing, Cristobal is now a disorganized extratropical storm south of Newfoundland.

The easterly wave near the Cape Verdes has degenerated quite a bit and is now much less of a concern.  It will be monitored for signs of redevelopment.

P.S. You can all consider yourselves more educated than CNN, who claims that Dolly is the second storm of the Atlantic season. Hard to reach "D" after only two storms!  Granted, it is the second HURRICANE, but not the second storm. Details, details....

Cristobal Heading Out to Sea, Dolly Heading for Land...

From my MESO storm chase partner Brian McNoldy...

Cristobal is now east of Cape Cod, south of Nova Scotia, and is a 55kt tropical storm. It will continue heading generally eastward into the north central Atlantic and should only be a tropical system for another day or two.

Dolly, on the other hand, is of much greater concern. Over the last 18 hours, the huge rainband that was far removed from the center has dissipated in favor on centralized deep convection. This is the needed ingredient for strengthening: focusing the latent heating over the center. The latest intensity is 60kts and 991mb, and is getting closer to hurricane status every hour. It's also getting closer to landfall every hour... now just 200 miles southeast of Brownsville and heading NW at 10kts. Landfall is expected early tomorrow morning near Brownsville as a hurricane.

Intensity at landfall is a tricky thing... the storm is showing every sign of rapid intensification, and it's at the classic current intensity to begin RI. Vertical shear is basically negligible, and SSTs are 29C+. So the problem is how fast will Dolly intensify on its approach? NHC is forecasting landfall at 80kts, which is line with the model guidance, but models (and people) don't forecast RI well.

You can already see outer rainbands approaching the coast, and the eyewall is coming into view HERE:

And the easterly wave that exited Africa yesterday is looking very impressive. It's now near the Cape Verde islands, and is consolidating its circulation. It has a 1009mb Low, and is moving W at 15kts. It is not forecast to intensify real quickly, but very gradually, and continue heading W-WNW.

What a Drive...

I am writing you from my hotel room in South Kingston, Rhode Island. I left home this morning at 8 a.m. and just arrived here at 7:35 p.m., just over 700 miles. I am here doing a video shoot for the next 4 days. From what I saw on my last 50 miles driving in I-95, and down to the hotel, it reminds me alot of Maine, where I worked for nearly six years. My GPS showed a stopping time of just over 17 minutes for my entire trip out here, I really hate to waste time stopping. I filled up in Ohio for $3.75 before I left and, put a little gas in my truck in Connecticut for $4.39, I can wait to find it cheaper elsewhere. I am looking forward to seeing some sites if I get a little time off.

I just got one of the last pieces I needed for my Diana camera history book e-mailed to me tonight from Jonathan Bailey of Maine. I hope to get the book done next week sometime and take it to my proofreader for the final OK.

Bertha Persists, New Depression Ready to Form...

From my MESO storm chase partner Brian McNoldy...

Bertha is still a strong 60kt tropical storm, now around for 13 days. It's located about 400 miles northeast of Bermuda. The forecast is to maintain this intensity, and continue heading generally eastward, then northeastward.

An interesting feature deserves to be pointed out... a cold SST wake left by Bertha.  As a storm passes over a patch of ocean, it churns it up, and upwells cooler water from below.  In some regions and times of the year, the "mixed layer" is very deep and it's hard to upwell cool water because it lies so deep.  Other times, the sea surface temperature might be very warm, but the warmth doesn't extend very deep. It's in these cases that we typically see a dramatic cold wake. The wake can be exaggerated by slow storm motion (longer time to act), an intense storm (more vigorous churning), or a combination.  Anyway, with that background in mind, check out this 2-week SST loop HERE, (areas of persistent cloud-cover as shown as gray because SSTs couldn't be retrieved that day). Also take note of the beautiful eddies and vorticies formed along the Gulf Stream. Some eddies are warm, some are cold... some rotate cyclonically, some rotate anticyclonically.

Elsewhere, the easterly wave I've been discussing each day is now located near 57W and is getting much better organized... it's about 100 miles east of the Windward Islands and moving W at 20kts. There is a broad mid-level circulation, and scattered deep convection with cloud tops hitting -70C.  It's in weak-moderate northwesterly vertical wind shear, and SSTs are in the 28C ballpark. This is forecast to keep tracking W-WNW through the Caribbean and perhaps enter the Gulf of Mexico  by early next week. You can find a radar loop of pre-TD3 (?) from Martinique HERE, (I took the liberty of naming the loop after its likely future name...)

There's also a fairly well-organized wave south of Jamaica, heading toward Nicaragua. This system will also be watched closely for development, as it's in a favorable environment as well.

Heat Dome Building in Here in Ohio - Yuck...

The projected temps here in Ohio for the next few days are 92 today, 93 tomorrow and 95 on Friday. Don't get me wrong, I like warm weather, but this is just too hot. I am not like most people, blaming this on global warming, just on the fact it is July in Ohio, I have a shoot Friday in Detroit, and fortunately, head to the East coast for the week to Rhode Island for a video shoot, hopefully it will be cooler.

Bertha Moves Out Into the Open Ocean...

From my MESO storm chase partner Brian McNoldy...

Bertha was a strong tropical storm when it passed over Bermuda Monday afternoon.  The island got hit by the northwest eyewall, then spent a few hours in the calm eye, then got the southwest eyewall, which came with very heavy rain and 60+ kt gusts.  Power was knocked out to thousands of people, and roads were flooded.  However, it sounds like they faired pretty well, with minimal damage and no injuries or deaths.

I got a live report from a colleague, Rick Taft, who is vacationing in Bermuda.  This was just prior to and during the first pass under the eyewall: "We have had tons of rain and gusty winds all day today.  We've gone out in bathing suits several times to play in the pool during the stormy weather -- at times the pelting rain was painful!  Lots of fun!"  They were not near trees or anything dangerous, and there wasn't lightning, so I guess it's a nice way to pass time in heavy rain!  Certainly a big difference between this rather weak storm and what the island experienced in Fabian '03.

The 24-hour meteogram from Bermuda can be found HERE. Note the dip in central pressure, along with the cloud cover decrease, wind shifts, etc all associated with the eye passage.

The storm is now well northeast (~200 miles) of Bermuda, and is tracking NNE at 10kts.  The 15Z intensity estimate is 60kts and 995mb, nearly back to hurricane strength.  Bertha is expected to re-attain hurricane strength today and tomorrow and slowly make its way generally eastward into the open ocean.

The easterly wave I discussed yesterday is now located near 48W and moving W at 15kts.  There is still an embedded Low, but the system has not gotten any better organized.  In the coming days, the environment will become more hostile, so its chances for getting named are shrinking.

Bertha hitting Bermuda...

From my MESO storm chase partner Brian McNoldy...

As I eluded to in my update LAST Monday, Bermuda should indeed being keeping a close eye on Bertha. As of now, they don't have a choice, the eyewall is right over the island. Though only a 55kt tropical storm as of this morning, it does have an intact and large eyewall.

You can view a longer, long-range radar loop HERE.

As of 15Z, the intensity is 55kts and 990mb, and heading N at 6kts. This very slow motion will leave Bermuda in tropical storm conditions for at least a day.  Over the next few days, the storm will SLOWLY move northward, then NE.  Intensity should remain nearly constant, with weakening a few days out once it gets over colder water. Bermuda is under a Tropical Storm Warning, and can expect 3-5" of rain, and large battering waves.

Bertha will easily be the longest-lived named storm during July in recorded history (back to 1851). It is also the 2nd longest-lived July hurricane. Truly a remarkable storm!

Elsewhere,one of the easterly waves I mentioned last week has gotten much betterorganized. It exited the African coast on Thursday, and is now locatednear 45W, traveling west at 15kts. It has an embedded 1008mb Low, and ahealthy circulation. The next name/number on deck is 3/Cristobal.

Quiet Weather...

It has been a few days since I last made an entry. I have been busy with my Diana Camera book, just waiting for a few elements to come in to finish it up, hopefully by the end of next week. My daughter Katrina is home for a short summer break from training at the CIA (Culinary Institute of America in New York). Noah is going to camp this week and I am finally going to have some peace and quiet again at the house. It seems our house is the popular place for all the boys in the neighborhood, and at any given moment, we could have up to five here running around, playing on the computer or XBox 360. Watched the beginning of the new Mini-series on HBO tonight, Generation Kill, seems like it will really cool, as are most HBO offerings. Speaking of Generation Kill, I really miss the Sopranos...Ba Da Bing!

Photo courtesy HBO free wallpaper download.

Recurvature Expected Soon for Bertha...

From my MESO storm chase partner Brian McNoldy...

Bertha is slowly nearing Bermuda, but they should be spared from a direct hit, as a mid-latitude trough is coming to their rescue (not all models agree on this though). The trough would nudge Bertha northeastward, away from the island and out to higher shear and cooler water. As it approaches the island though, you can monitor it via radar: HERE. As of this writing, only the outermost rainbands are within the radar's range.

The satellite presentation is certainly not as impressive as it had been in recent days. The inner core is somewhat disorganized, with a large ragged eye surrounded by a not-so-complete eyewall. However, outflow aloft is symmetric and healthy, the SSTs are around 28C, and there's presently very weak vertical wind shear.

As of 21Z today, the intensity is 80kts and 976mb, based on the first aircraft recon flight into the storm. It is tracking NNW at 4kts. Bertha should be near Bermuda for the next few days with such a slow motion.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the island.

The forecast is for continued slow erratic motion toward the NW-N, then tomorrow afternoon start heading N-NE. Intensity should remain nearly steady until the trough imposes stronger shear over the system. Even if it does end up passing very near or over Bermuda, it's not a terribly strong hurricane. Their last encounter was with Florence on 9/12/06 (CAT1), and then the infamous Fabian on 9/5/03 (CAT3).

Bertha still heading toward Bermuda...

From my MESO storm chase partner Brian McNoldy...

CAT1 hurricane Bertha is still heading northwest, and has undergone an eyewall replacement cycle today. In this cycle, a larger, weaker eyewall encircles the original smaller eyewall, chokes it off, and replaces it. In time, it too contracts, and during this process the storm would typically fluctuate in intensity (weaken during the new eyewall formation, and strengthen during the new eyewall contraction).

That said, the intensity estimate as of 21Z today is 75kts and 980mb. It's located about 400 miles southeast of Bermuda and tracking northwest at 9kts. It still has an open eye, and is in an environment favorable for strengthening, in addition to the eyewall cycle factor. Large-scale flow is becoming complicated, which means the track forecast is becoming less certain. Motion over the next few days should be generally NW to N, but slowing and becoming erratic. This puts Bermuda at risk for several days, not knowing if it will hit them or not. Bertha has already been around for one week, and probably will be for another week!

Bertha on a Comeback...

From my MESO storm chase partner Brian McNoldy...

After the encounter with higher shear and drier air yesterday, Bertha is back to a more symmetric shape with an open eye.  A microwave image (from SSM/I) at 0939Z this morning captured the eye reforming prior to it opening up in VIS and IR imagery.  Another microwave-instrument-bearing satellite had an overpass at 0521Z and there was not an eye at that time.  As of 15Z today, the intensity was estimated at 65kts and 987mb, a minimal CAT1 hurricane.  However, since then, the presentation has improved noticeably, and I suspect that at the 21Z advisory, we'll see something more like 75kts, with a strengthening trend in the forecast.

The SST is presently 27.5C under the storm, and will hover around that temperature for the coming days.  Vertical shear is southwesterly at ~15kts, which is moderate, but low enough to allow an eye to reform.

An interesting question remains... what about Bermuda?  In 4-5 days (weekend-ish), it appears that Bertha will have a close encounter with the island.  Just how close depends on the encroaching mid-latitude trough.  It could be responsible for not only steering/recurving Bertha away from the island, but also shearing and weakening it beforehand.  It will be a close call.

Elsewhere in the basin, there are easterly waves trekking across the deep tropics at about 50W, 35W, and 20W, none of which currently show signs of organization.

Two Little Rats...

Here is a shot I took of my son Noah playing with his rat Merrill this morning. Just a quick cute shot, not much else happening other than working on my pictorial history of the Diana camera, which will be done in a few weeks and be ready for purchase, please check back for more details

Bertha Now on a Weakening Trend...

From my MESO storm chase partner Brian McNoldy...

After peaking out at 105kts earlier today, Bertha has since encountered stronger vertical shear and drier air, and is now deteriorating. At 21Z today, the intensity was estimated at 75kts and 980mb, tracking NW at 10kts. The CAT1 hurricane is located at 22.7N 54.8W. The deep convection is shifted almost entirely to the northeast of the low-level center, a true sign of the stronger vertical wind shear.

Bertha is the 6th strongest pre-August hurricane on record, and the 5th earliest pre-August hurricane.  The combination of these traits yields the 3rd strongest hurricane so early in the season (105kts on Jul 8). Only Audrey (6/27/57) and Alma (6/8/66) were earlier AND stronger. Bertha also shattered the record for furthest east formation for a pre-August tropical storm, hurricane, and major hurricane.  Thanks to Phil Klotzbach and Jeff Masters for pointing these climatological features out!

It is possible that in a few days, conditions will improve slightly and the storm will be allowed to once again intensify. Bermuda should still be watching this, but it seems more and more likely that Bertha will recurve just east of Bermuda given the current 4-5-day forecasts of the weakness in the subtropical ridge.

Elsewhere, a large easterly wave is just exiting the African coast today, but has little circulation associated with it, and none of the forecast models indicate development.

Ohio Under a 2% Tornado Risk Today...

The SPC has Ohio under a 2% tornado risk today, heating is already starting here and it is 82 at 10:30 in the morning.

Bertha Skips CAT2 - 1st Major Hurricane of Season...

From my MESO storm chase partner Brian McNoldy...

Since the previous advisory, Bertha intensified from 80kts (CAT1) to 100kts now (CAT3).  The estimated minimum sea level pressure is 948mb, or 27mb lower than six hours ago! 

This type of "Cape Verde storm" is atypical so early in the season.  They happen, but this one stands out as being the easternmost formation prior to August 1.  This would indicate a generally active season is in the making, since SST and shear are already favorable in this classically Aug-Sep formation zone.

Bermuda should still be keeping a close eye on this hurricane as the week progresses.

Bertha Now a Strong Category 1 Hurricane...

From my MESO storm chase partner Brian McNoldy...

During the long holiday weekend, Bertha made some big jumps in organization, despite some cooler ocean temperatures and some dry air trying to wrap around the circulation. Earlier this morning (Monday), an eye formed and has remained open since then.  The storm is now in a very favorable environment, and Bertha is forecast to continue intensifying. At 15Z today, the intensity estimate is 80kts and 975mb, nearly a CAT2 storm.  It's still heading WNW at 13kts, basically identical to what it was 4 days ago. Location is 19.6N 51.3W, far away from any land.

Given the environment, it's likely that Bertha will become a CAT2 storm within a day, and perhaps even reach 100kts and make CAT3 status (that's a remote possibility). Large-scale steering flow is still WNW, but will become more NW by the middle of the week as the storm skirts around the subtropical High. 

Bermuda is under the gun by the end of the week, and should be watching this very closely. Right around this time however, Bertha could interact with a mid-latitude trough, which complicates the track and intensity forecast.

Ohio to be Under the Weather Tomorrow...

The SPC has Ohio under the area that will become a slight risk tomorrow. The weather has moved somewhat East from the first forecast this morning, and will depend on what happens out West today. I have been rather busy this week, I am doing a pictorial history book on the Diana Camera. Documenting the collection I amassed over 20 years. I am hoping the book will be done in a week or so and will be for sale soon. I will provide a link for its purchase when done.

My Book at Blurb...

Your Wedding Day

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Happy Birthday to my Son Noah (I Wanted NOAA)...

Eight years ago today, in a raging thunderstorm, my son Noah (I wanted to spell his name NOAA) came into our lives here in Fremont. Last night was a carbon copy of the night he was born, thunder and lightning all night. Noah Bower Detrich was born around 5 a.m. The little trooper first storm chased with me at the ripe old age of two weeks. Now he gladly comes along as long as he can have a camera like his dad. We will be having his traditional birthday party up at the lake, shooting off fireworks with family and friends on Saturday.

Noah storm chasing with me in 2005.

Like a Kid Again - Music Video...

This a music video I did for Michael Coleman in Columbus, edited by a friend of mine, Mike Morelli. The song is a combo of Country and Hip-Hop music. The song has since been picked up by a record label. I will be going back to Columbus to film another music video for Michael later this month.

Like a Kid Again

Perfect (Almost) Summer Day...

Today here in Ohio, it was a perfect summer day, highs in the mid 80's, and very low humidity, not a cloud in the sky. Reminds me of the song by Electric Light Orchestra (ELO), Mr. Blue Sky, so I broke out an oldie, but a goody. Here is one of my favorite sunset shots of all time from Grand Island, NE.  About this time of the year I start to miss the Great Plains... Enjoy the video below...