MovingPictures

Gustav, Hanna, TD9 is Forming Oh My...

From my MESO storm chase partner Brian McNoldy...

Gustav underwent rapid intensification Friday evening through Saturday afternoon.  In 24 hours ending 00Z Sunday, the central pressure fell 34mb, and in 23mb in 12 hours.  It strengthened from a 60kt tropical storm to a 130kt CAT4 hurricane in 27 hours.  Unfortunately, it accomplished this while heading for, and passing over, western Cuba, causing extensive damage.

Since exiting Cuba, it has had a hard time reorganizing, though still a 100kt CAT3 hurricane.  It is heading NW at 15kts, toward the central LA coast, and landfall is expected Monday morning as a major hurricane near Marsh Island.  However, there is still uncertainty, and a hurricane warning covers the LA and MS coasts.  As far as Katrina-ravaged New Orleans goes, so far about 15,000 people have evacuated, and evacuation orders are still in place for the city.  Lake Pontchartrain can expect a 15-20 foot storm surge on Labor Day, which will certainly re-test the levee system protecting the below-sea-level city.  Other parishes in coastal LA also have mandatory evacuation orders.  As of this writing, over 3/4 of oil production in the Gulf has ceased, as platforms and rigs are evacuated and shut down for the duration of the storm.

The latest intensity is 100kts and 962mb.  It is forecast the strengthen a bit more again, perhaps to CAT4 status, before landfall.  It's currently looking ragged on satellite, lacking a clear eye, showing
signs of southerly vertical shear, and has dry air wrapping around west and south of it.  The main factor in its favor is deep, warm water under it.

You will be able to track its progress toward the coast via radar loops that I'm generating... a long and short range from New Orleans, and a short-range from Lake Charles all are available at HERE.

Hanna, still maintaining modest tropical storm intensity, is strongly sheared.  Latest intensity is 45kts and 999mb, and heading WNW at 9kts.  It's now a couple degrees north of the Turk islands, and it is expected to track slowly westward toward the Bahamas, then NW toward the southeast US coast as a hurricane.  Landfall could be sometime next weekend... however, the steering environment is incredibly complicated, and Hanna will just have to be watched for the next few days to figure out where it's going!

The easterly wave I mentioned 2 and 3 days ago near the Cape Verdes has gotten better organized and is now located near 16N 35W.  Development of this wave should be slow as it heads W at 12kts.  The next name on the list is Ike.

You will wind the latest satellite imagery, radar imagery, forecast tracks and more for Gustav, Hanna, and the rest of the basin HERE.

Scenes From a Hurricane...

As I watch the TV coverage of the impending Hurricane Gustav, I can't help help but to think back upon the last hurricane I covered in 2005, hurricane Rita. (Hear audio of the storm as the eyewall rolls over Beaumont, TX.) I spent a week on the ground in Beaumont, TX and rode out a direct hit of the eye in the Emergency Management Center as Rita rolled ashore. It is good to see the people taking heed of the warnings and evacuating the New Orleans area. I remember driving south to Beaumont from Dallas as the traffic streamed North from the coastal areas. Seeing this, it made me wonder why the hell I was driving in the opposite direction of all the other people.

We filled our gas tank everytime we saw an open gas station, and as time wore on, open stations were few and far between. We found an open station at one point, and bough several gas cans and filled them also. After the storm hit land, we ventured out to do some reporting, but again were faced with the lack of gas, and at one point bribed a Beaumont city worker for maybe 10 gallons of gas, which got us North enough to find an open station. Here are some photos from the venture, and you can see more HERE.

Top to Bottom: a Texas State Trooper directs traffic as southern Texas is evacuated. A woman cries as she is evacuated and worries about being separated from her dog. A woman sleeps in the bed of her truck as she flees Hurricane Rita. A Texas National Guard member leaps out of the back of his Hummer as he arrives to help in the aftermath of Rita. Left, a tree is driven through a trailer near Beaumont, TX after Huricane Rita hit the coast. Click here to Hear audio of Hurricane Rita as the eyewall rolls over Beaumont, TX.

Check (RUNNING) Mate...

Yesterday John McCain made his latest move in the chess game that is the next presidential election. Sarah Palin is now the second woman to be nominated as a vice-presidential candidate, Geraldine Ferraro being the first in 1984. I have to say that when John McCain made the announcement yesterday here in Ohio, he was smiling from ear to ear like the chesshire cat, as he gave a short bio of his new VP running mate from Alaska.

It was a brilliant move on the part of McCain, it counters, and fills the void of the Hillary vote, and makes Joe Biden look like the crusty old dinosaur he is. Palin was 8 years old when Biden first was elected to the Senate thirty-some years ago (yes Barack, McCain agrees it is time for a change). Palin is very sharp on the topic of energy and is currently working on a 40 billion dollar natural gas pipeline to carry the eco-friendly fuel out of Alaska.

We have guaranteed change at the very top of the US government thanks to John McCain. It is now a certainty that either a minority or a woman will be at the top of the executive branch for the first time in our 232 year history, and that is very cool. This would also put a resident of Alaska or Hawaii at the top of Washington's Capital hill since the statehood of the 49th and 50th states fifty years ago.

This election brings the spotlight to a state that is closer to Russia, that many of the other states in our union. I fact, this puts Alaska right into the heart of America for the first time in history. This election has already passed the test and will be a history maker no matter who is elected. I am happy to be able to take part in such a barrier-breaking election. I think the already interesting contest just got ramped up into historic proportions with the addition of the tough, NRA card holding, moose-hunting, mother of five and Governor from Alaska.

This election may bring some credence to the History Channel show called "Tougher in Alaska."

Gustav Exits Jamaica, Hanna Gaining Strength Also...

From my MESO storm chase partner Brian McNoldy...

First of all, today marks the 3-year anniversary of the final, historic, and infamous landfall of Hurricane Katrina.  Katrina was a Category 3 hurricane when it came ashore near the LA/MS border.  It was responsible for 1833 deaths, and $81 billion in damage.  Though not in the running for the deadliest landfall, it did set the record for the costliest landfall, and costliest natural disaster for that matter, in US history.

Another bit of history to point out as we look ahead to the holiday weekend is the infamous Labor Day Hurricane of 1935.  This storm mostly affected the Florida Keys, and was the most intense (by pressure) US landfall on record... Camille was #2, Katrina was #3, and Andrew was #4.  It was responsible for over 400 deaths and it basically obliterated Islamorada and other towns/keys in extreme southwest Florida. Fortunately, residential air conditioning wasn't affordable or practical yet and Florida was barely populated compared to today (during the 1950's, the state's population grew by 79%, largely because of A/C!).

Now back to 2008.  Gustav has completed its trek over Jamaica, but has already caused at least 59 deaths across Haiti, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, and Cuba.  It is now over open, deep, warm water and poised to intensify to a powerful hurricane as it heads WNW toward western Cuba, then into the Gulf of Mexico.  As of 15Z today, the intensity is 55kts and 988mb and is located 165 miles from Grand Cayman.  It has sped up a little and is now moving WNW at 7kts (has been 3-4kts lately).  All conditions and current appearance suggest rapid intensification is primed to take place.  The latest satellite images indicate that an eyewall is forming already, HERE.

So of course, the question is what about landfall?  The western tip of Cuba is the next target probably on Saturday evening as a strong hurricane.  Then the US gulf coast is next, probably Tuesday morning as a very strong and dangerous hurricane.  The current NHC forecast track is centered on the middle LA coast, but anywhere from Corpus Cristi, Houston, New Orleans, Panama City is within the 5-day average track error cone.  Coastal residents within THIS range should at least begin basic preparations.

Hanna is still a tropical storm as well, and like Gustav, is on an intensification trend.  TS Hanna is moving WNW at 10kts and intensity is estimated at 45kts and 1000mb.  It is forecast to continue strengthening, and slowing as it heads WNW... then by the end of the weekend, start turning SW toward the Bahamas.  A long-range model run, shown here, forecasts Hanna to then turn westward, enter the Gulf, and make landfall on LA late next week as a strong hurricane. This plot is valid Friday evening (Sept 5): HERE.

Elsewhere, the easterly wave that exited the African coast yesterday is now just east of the Cape Verdes and still looks impressive on satellite.  Central pressure of the Low associated with the wave is estimated at 1007mb.  This will likely be the next named storm in a couple days: Ike.

Gustav Heading for Jamaica, Hanna Forms...

From my MESO storm chase partner Brian McNoldy...

After crawling across Haiti's southwestern peninsula and almost losing tropical storm status (it weakened to 40kts and 999mb yesterday), Gustav is now back over water, but made a remarkable turn in the last 12 hours or so. Rather than the expected westward track which would have put it along the southern edge of Cuba, it turned southwest and is now east of Jamaica and should end up passing over or SOUTH of Jamaica!  From that point, the previous forecast track remains unchanged: clip the extreme western tip of Cuba (or miss it by a little), then enter the central Gulf, then head NW toward Louisiana. The official forecast, which agrees with many models, is for a major landfall on Labor Day in/near Louisiana.

As of 15Z, Gustav was located on the eastern tip of Jamaica, with an intensity of 60kts and 983mb...nearly a hurricane again. It appears to be forming another eye, but the mountains of Jamaica could disrupt that later today.

The HWRF forecast is shown at (surface winds and sea level pressure): It is forecasting an extremely intense hurricane in the Gulf and at US landfall... reaching it's peak intensity of 894mb and 137kts on Sunday evening. If this verifies, it could rival the infamous Labor Day Hurricane of 1935. As usual, do not focus on the exact track... the 3-5 day range has too many uncertainties, but should be used as a guideline for preparedness. Certainly anyone in coastal LA, MS, AL should at least be preparing for this.

The disturbance that was near 20N 57W yesterday was upgraded to TD8 early this morning, then TS Hanna later this morning. Latest intensity is 35kts and 1002mb and it's located near 20N 59W. It is forecast to gradually intensify to hurricane status and head westward toward the US east coast in a week or so. At its somewhat far north location, it would be easy for it get recurved by a mid-latitude trough though.

And, a new easterly wave has exited Africa (near 18W) and is already quite impressive. It will be watched for further development. The next name on the list is Ike.

For the latest on Gustav, Hanna, and the rest of the basin, please visit HERE.

Gustav Temporarily Weakens Over Haiti...

From my MESO storm chase partner Brian McNoldy...

At 03Z last night, Gustav was downgraded to a Tropical Storm, and is still at that status, as it passes over the high mountainous terrain of Haiti's southwestern peninsula. And it's doing so very slowly (~4kts). The flash flooding there must be terrible.

An AP report from Haiti states "rising water was threatening crops in Haiti, already a powder keg because of spiking food prices. Earlier this year, there were deadly protests over the high cost of food. Gustav lingered over the nation's impoverished and deforested southern peninsula, threatening banana and vegetable fields. Residents in coastal Les Cayes ignored government warnings to seek shelter, instead throwing rocks in protest of Haiti's poor economic conditions". Not a good situation. And now Gustav is eyeing up Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands.

The western tip of Cuba could have a brush with an intense Gustav on Saturday, then the storm enters the central Gulf of Mexico, where it's forecast to gradually start turning toward the NW. Presently, Louisiana is a likely target on Monday, but the situation will of course be very carefully watched and forecasts will be tweaked.

The HWRF model (WRF model that's coded to specialize in hurricanes) has the following forecast out to 5 days (the fields shown in the large plot are sea level pressure in the line contours and vorticity in the shaded contours... and in the zoomed plot are sea level pressure in the line contours and surface wind speed in the shaded contours): HERE. ZOOMED: HERE. HWRF shows a peak intensity of 901mb and 135kts late this weekend, and a major landfall very similar to that of Camille and Katrina. The official National Hurricane Center forecast currently agrees very well with this scenario, but it's still 5-6 days out.

The easterly wave that was near 20N 56W yesterday has barely moved and is now near 20N 57W. It's estimated at 25kts and 1009mb, and although vertical shear has made development a challenge these past few days, it is forecast to lessen and allow this system to get better organized. The one near the Cape Verdes is lacking organized convection now, but will still be watched closely. This is the time of year when a lot can happen at once!

For the latest on Gustav, visit HERE.

The Sound of Silence...

Noah and his third grade teacher Mrs. Smith.

I have been sitting in my office for a hour or so and the only thing I have heard are a few profanities coming from the living room where I am recording an episode of the Sopranos, oops, the dog just sneezed, ahhhh, music to my ears. It is the first day of school here in Fremont, and my son Noah is off to his first day of third grade.

Don’t get me wrong, I love my son, but I work out of my home during the week. This works out great for our family, my wife Mary works at her office M-F, and I work on the weekends, mostly on the road. Mary takes care of Noah on the weekends. During the week, I am processing all the photos and video I shoot on the weekend, and at any given time, Noah would have between one and five friends here at the house. They all are good kids, but they would be playing like boys play, loud and rowdy, with Guitar Hero as their favorite activity of the summer.

I kind of feel like Tom Cruise in the beginning of the movie Risky Business, as he slides across the living room floor in his socks to the song “Old Time Rock and Roll” by Bob Seger, after his parents leave for vacation.

Meanwhile, I am getting alot of work done in peace and quiet, that is at least until 3:30 when Noah gets home, and then Sam will come over, then Seth, and Andy, and Alex, and Oliver…

In the mean time, I just might “Just take some old records off the shelf, i'll sit and listen to 'em by myself…”

- Bob Seger, “Old Time Rock and Roll”

Noah walks to his third grade class for the first time.

Fay Gone, Gustav Forms...

From my MESO storm chase partner Brian McNoldy...

Long-lived Fay finally dissipated this past weekend, but not without drenching Florida and the southeast. Past storms like Agnes '72 and Allison '01 come to mind when talking about weak systems that are slow and dump amazing amounts of rain. You can view the estimated rainfall over the past week HERE.

The easterly wave we were watching last week was upgraded to TD7 on Monday morning, then quickly upgraded again to TS Gustav, the seventh named storm of the season. The intensity as of 21Z is 50kts and 996, tracking WNW at 12kts. It is forecast to continue moving WNW and possibly intensify very quickly. There is great disagreement between forecast models and the National Hurricane Center forecast, so for now, I'll leave the details out. The countries in its 3-day future are Haiti, Cuba, and possibly Jamaica. If this storm manages to remain over ocean for longer than expected, it could become very intense given the ideal environmental conditions.

Elsewhere, there's a weak wave near 23N 56W, but vertical shear is strong over that system.

Horseplay...

A Lensbaby photo from the Sandusky Co. Fair shot on my Canon EOS 40D

Cool Sunset Photo...

Shot with my Canon 40D and Lensbaby at the Sandusky County fair.

Bigfoot or Hogzilla Seen at the Sandusky Co. Fair...

My son and I went to the Sandusky County Fair last night and I took my camera along with a Lensbaby attachment and shot for fun, got some really nice snaps. with the recent hubbub about Bigfoot, I had to shoot this guy who was at a booth for a local Haunted Hydro. He seemed like a cross between Bigfoot and Hogzilla. Remember to look over your shoulder while visiting Fremont...

Fay Inland Over Florida and Strengthening...

From my MESO storm chase partner Brian McNoldy...

Fay made landfall on the Florida peninsula near Cape Romano (about halfway between Fort Meyers and Cape Sable) at 09Z this morning as a 50kt tropical storm. However, since making landfall, it has developed an eyewall and the central pressures have fallen to 986mb (was 989mb at landfall, and 995mb a few hours prior to landfall). Though the winds are not very strong at surface stations across the peninsula, they could start to increase in response to the decreasing pressure.

Visible satellite loop: HERE - Radar loop: HERE

The forecast is still uncertain. The official forecast does bring Fay up to minimal hurricane strength, while tracking it northward over the peninsula, then westward over southern GA/AL.

But, as you can see HERE: there's a still a bit of model differences in the forecast track.  Some models bring it up to hurricane strength, even approaching CAT2-3 at landfall near the GA/FL border in a couple of days.

The easterly wave we've been tracking (exited Africa on Aug 13) is now at 38W and forecast to continue heading WNW and gradually strengthening. This could be a big player in a week or so. The next name on the list is Gustav. 

Fay Heading for Florida...

From my MESO storm chase partner Brian McNoldy...

During the weekend, Fay maintained tropical storm intensity while passing over Hispaniola and then central Cuba. As of this writing, the circulation center has just exited Cuba and is now over very warm water south of the FL Keys. Intensity as of 15Z today is 50kts and 1003mb, and it's moving NNW at 11kts. SSTs under the storm are around 30C, and vertical shear is moderate: westerly at  10-15kts.

You will find a radar loop from Key West HERE. Also, you can monitor surface observations from Marathon FL HERE.

Fay is forecast to pass directly over the Keys later today, as a tropical storm or possibly even a minimal hurricane, then continue north toward Tampa, making landfall there tomorrow morning (local) as a CAT1 hurricane.  The latest watches/warnings are shown graphically HERE. After this west peninsula landfall, the long-range forecast isn't so straight-forward (some models take it on a north track inland over GA, others take it back over ocean and then into coastal GA/SC, while others take it for a loop off the east coast of FL, then back inland). But let's get past this one first!

The easterly wave I first mentioned four days ago is now near 35W and heading W at 12kts. There is a 1009mb Low embedded within the wave, and its satellite presentation is impressive.  In the long term, it looks like continued W-WNW motion and gradually strengthening. This could be upgraded to TD7 today, and the next name on the list is Gustav. There's also a wave right on its heels, near 25W which will also be watched closely for further organization.

A Rotting Bigfoot or a Smelly Fish Story...

The "Bigfoot" carcass in a freezer in an undisclosed location in Georgia.

Ever since I was a little kid, I have been fascinated by the unknown, Bigfoot, ghosts, aliens, UFO's, the Loch Ness Monster and the like. The thought of something out there that is undiscovered, living unchanged for thousands, maybe millions of years interested me. The recent news out of Georgia that a Bigfoot possibly was found dead in the woods, brought that kid in me back to the surface. I read the reports on the NY Times website and CNN, which was unusual, considering neither of these organizations have ever touched the topic of Bigfoot with a ten-foot pole. Fox news has had a bunch of fun with the story today, and their morning anchor Megan Kelly was invited to the autopsy on Monday by one of the founders. I really hope she takes them up on the offer. The press conference showed photos of the mouth and teeth, and a shot of a Bigfoot walking parallel to them as they removed the body from the woods.

Who knows, I guess we all will sooner or later. What will this mean to humanity as we know it today if this story is true? Will this have every hiker looking over their shoulders as they tromp through the woods? Or will it have every Bubba in Georgia oiling up his shotgun and donning camouflage, grabbing his spotlight and heading out into the woods for some late night target practice. What happens if Bubba gets one, will he drink a six pack while sitting on the carcass and then take it to Jed's Taxidermy to be mounted, or will he be charged with "Mankind Slaughter" by an overzealous prosecuting attorney in Atlanta, wanting to make a name for himself and then run for the US Senate someday?

Personally, I hope it is true. It will add a few more chills to the movie Legend of Boogie Creek that scared the hell out of me as a kid, knowing it is a little bit closer to real. I just wonder if Neil Armstrong had Bigfoot on mind as he left his large spacesuit boot print on the moon as he said the immortal words, "That's one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind." Oh, maybe not - remember there are those nuts that say the moon landing was not real either...

Above left; the footprint of Neil Armstrong left on the moon. Above right; a plaster cast of a Bigfoot print left in Oregon. Is it a coincidence both these controversial stories iconic images are footprints? Who knows maybe it is another of those government cover-ups...

Just a side note: I went over 40,000 hits to my blog, MovingPictures today, thanks to all the readers who stop by occasionally, thanks, I appreciate it...

Waffle House Wedding...

I have never had a wedding like this Waffle House Wedding, but would love to shoot one. Americana at its finest. If you know of someone getting married in a bizarre situation like this, let me know, you might just get a great deal on some wedding pictures for your album. The lucky couple, George "Bubba" Mathis and Pamela Christian - both 23 and employees at the Dacula diner located at the Ga. Highway 316/U.S. Highway 29 interchange. Yee Haw! Would you please pass the blueberry flavored syrup? You may now kiss the Bride...

Here is one of my favorite nerve pictures of recent...

Two Easterly Waves Tracking Across the Basin...

From my MESO storm chase partner Brian McNoldy...

Although there are no named storms at the moment, I wanted to point out a couple easterly waves. One is centered near 54W, and the other near 31W. Both have Lows associated with them, with approx 1008mb central pressures, and both are traveling W-WNW at 10-15kts. You can track them in 12-hourly satellite images HERE.

The western one is forecast to gradually turn more westward, and be just north of Hispaniola in 4-5 days.  The eastern one is forecast to continue heading WNW-NW. Both should strengthen, but the western one is favored... AND of more concern to the US. By week's end, a 5-day forecast could be quite revealing: is it destined for a landfall or not?

And what exactly IS an easterly wave? First of all, it's "easterly" because it travels from east to west, with the trade winds (the equatorial/tropical belt of winds that blow from east to west all year long). The "wave" part has more interesting origins. Large temperature differences between the desert and rainforest regions of continental Africa generate a strong low-level jet, or plume of enhanced winds. This jet is unstable, and tends to break down into discrete waves, with ridges and troughs. The troughs are what we then call "easterly waves", and are characterized by lower pressures and thunderstorms. The jet is most active in the August-September timeframe, but is present from April through November. As you've probably noticed, not all easterly waves develop into tropical cyclones. Roughly 60 easterly waves track across the basin each season, but on average, only 6 or 7 of them might become tropical storms or hurricanes.

Busy, Busy, Busy...

I have been on the road shooting the last few weekends, and go tomorrow to Ann Arbor to work on another movie short. I will finally be home on Monday. Next weekend I have a shoot in Medina on Saturday and then a music video shoot in Columbus, Ohio on Sunday. On the 30th, I have the movie premier of Angel Wishes in Cincinnati, Ohio. I guess I can't complain about too much work!

Edouard Mades Landfall...

From my MESO storm chase partner Brian McNoldy...

Edouard made landfall as a 55kt tropical storm Tuesday morning around 7am CDT, between Sabine and High Island TX ... right by the Louisiana border.  Fortunately, this area is not very populated. Jefferson County, where landfall occurred, has about 240,000 residents, compared to about 4 million in the three neighboring counties to its west. However, in the same county, about 1 in 5 people live at or below poverty level, so even a weak storm can have a very negative effect. Incidentally, this is almost exactly where Rita made landfall 3 years ago, but as a Category 3 hurricane with 105kt winds.

So far, no major damage reports have come out, and no deaths... just half a foot of rain and moderate gusty winds that have taken down some trees and power lines. The rest of the basin is quiet right now, and probably will be for a little while longer.

Edouard Forms Near Northern Gulf Coast...

From my MESO storm chase partner Brian McNoldy...

On Sunday afternoon, TD5 formed in the north central Gulf of Mexico. It is currently just south of New Orleans and heading W at 7kts... near 28.2N 90.6W.  Intensity is 40kts and 1002mb. It's battling some northerly wind shear and ambient dry air, which should both act to at least slow intensification. But SSTs are quite warm under its future track.

Latest SST analysis: Click HERE - Latest vertical shear analysis: Click HERE

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for the northern half of the TX coast and the western half of the LA coast. Edouard is not forecast to be a hurricane at landfall, but it's certainly not out of the realm of possibilities. It is heading generally westward toward Houston, and should make landfall early Tuesday morning.

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Diana Camera Pictorial History

Over 100 clones from Acme to Zodiac

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The "Detrich Diana Collection" in Hong Kong Tonight...

I was looking around on Facebook last night and I found that the Lomographic Society International is having an exhibition of my former Diana Camera Collection in Hong Kong. They are having a big party and giving away posters. I wrote Michael Kuhle of the Society and he is sending me some posters. I am also selling my latest rare Diana clone find, the Clicker, to them to add to the "Detrich Collection." To get your very own copy of my new book - The Diana Camera Pictorial History. 90 pages of photos of Diana's and their clones from Acme to Zodiac - click HERE to order today!